What is Win-Her?
- Win-Her is a Win Predictor – a computer program which gives an indication of who is likely to win a women’s cricket match.
Lots of sites have that!
- True! But they are almost all based mostly on men’s cricket, and we think the women’s game is a bit different. In particular, the existing models tend to overestimate the resources available at the tail-end of a batting line-up – basically, they think the last few batters will hit a lot more runs than they normally actually do.
How does it work?
- It analyzes thousands of women’s games from the past 10 years, and compares “this” game to them. So if after 10 overs in a T20 chase, a team is 60-4 chasing 120, it looks at all those previous games to determine whether other teams in a similar situation won the game or not, and therefore what the likelihood of the win is – e.g. if 1 out of 10 teams in that position won the match, the Win Percentage would be 10%.
When does it run?
- Our latest version provides ongoing predictions through the 2nd innings – if we are charting a live game, we usually post it on https://bsky.app/.
Who wrote this software?
- Syd
Does he know what he is doing?
- Yes! He is a computer programmer by trade, and his very first proper coding job (30 years ago – eeeek!) was on a team working with the Association of American Railroads in Atlanta, predicting when freight trains (which are not timetabled in the US) were likely to arrive at their destination. In principle, this is pretty-much the same thing!
Is it accurate?
- Almost by definition, yes. But there is always the chance of a team beating the odds – that’s why the resulting Win Percentage is never 100% or 0%!
So, should I bet my house on it?
- Definitely not!!
CRICKETher 