ECB-ology, like its etymological forefather Kremlinology, is an inexact science. Nevertheless, it seems clear from reading between the lines of today’s Academy squad announcements for next week’s games against Australia, that England have all-but pencilled-in a team for the Women’s Ashes Test, which begins on Tuesday-week.

In (possible!) batting order:

1. Knight
2. Winfield
3. Taylor
4. Edwards
5. Greenway
6. Sciver
7. Brunt
8. Shrubsole
9. Gunn
10. Cross
11. Grundy

Edwards, Knight, Taylor, Sciver and Shrubsole will all be picked unless they are clinically dead… and even then the selectors would probably have a long, hard think! Brunt is also a certainty as long as they think she’ll make it through without injury, and she is looking pretty fit right now, so she is nailed-on too.

Greenway isn’t quite on that list any more, but she had a 50 and a 40 in the ODIs, so she will play as well.

That leaves just 4 question-marks – Winfield, Cross, Gunn and Grundy.

Neither Winfield nor Grundy are in the Academy squads, so unless one of them has “looked funny” at Paul Shaw, they are both “in”, or they would have been given the opportunity to prove themselves against the Southern Stars in those games next week.

Cross was “dropped” for the 3rd ODI, but England were pretty clear that this was more of a positive swap than a negative one, and she is seen as a bit of a red-ball specialist. Indeed she is the only England bowler to have played a significant amount of red-ball cricket this season, having been playing The Other Game in the Lancashire League; so I’m pretty sure she will play.

Finally… Jenny Gunn? The Gunnster is obviously entering the twilight of her career; but she did a job with the ball when she came back into the ODI team that only Jenny Gunn can do; and I just can’t see Charlotte Edwards wanting to go into the Test without her longest-serving and most trusted lieutenant – someone who can bowl a lot of overs with good economy, and was England’s highest run-scorer in last summer’s Test against India.

So there it is! Am I right? We’ll find out next week apparently, but in the meantime have your say below!

* Wickets Matter In 50-Over Cricket

As in the previous two games, England’s key bowlers – Brunt and Shrubsole – received plaudits aplenty for keeping things tight. Shrubsole in particular was lauded for costing just 25 runs from her 10 overs.

But the problem is that neither of them took any wickets.

In the 1st ODI (which England won) early wickets put that little bit of pressure on Australia’s middle-order and kept the total slightly under-par. This time, Australia got off to a much smoother start, sailed through the middle overs, and were able to throw the bat at it at the end, delivering a total which was perhaps as much as 30 runs over par; and which England were simply unable to live with.

* Australia’s Coaches Deliver

Several people on Twitter commented that England were hitting the ball directly to fielders – they weren’t! The fields were simply so expertly placed (and clinically adjusted for each batsman) that it just looked like they were. Basically, the Australian coaching and captaincy team delivered a tactical master-class out there today.

Similarly the decision to move Healy up the order was perfect – bringing on the big-hitter just when the innings needed some impetus. In fact… I did wonder at the time if it might have been to England’s advantage if Sciver had “accidentally” dropped Bolton!

(And yes… although England later pulled a similar trick by moving Brunt up the order, at the point they did it, it was already far too late.)

* England Can Bowl… But Australia Can Bat

I still think England’s bowling attack is slightly stronger than Australia’s; but the problem is that Australia’s batting is orders of magnitude stronger than England’s. With England, once you get Charlotte Edwards out, you know you are already half way there. Whereas with Australia, once you get rid of Villani you get Lanning… then Perry… then (today) Healy… then Blackwell – only then do you get down to someone (today, Jonassen) who wouldn’t immediately walk into any other team in the world, England included.

* Australia Are Now Odds-On… But England Can Hope

Though Tuesday’s performance offered a glimpse of what we all know England can do, in our hearts it has always been clear that these Ashes were going to be an uphill struggle against the undisputed World Champions. Today just confirmed that. Nevertheless, there is still hope for England – if they can win the Test, they then need to win just one of the 3 T20s to retain the 14-billion-year-old* trophy. And that sounds doable… right…???

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* Well… if our friends at Cricket Australia can claim the trophy is 300 years old on the grounds that it was made from a 300 year old tree, I figure we might as well take this to its logical conclusion, based upon the age of the atoms which comprised the tree!

In the wake of something like Australia’s clinically emphatic victory at Bristol last Thursday, the temptation is always to reach for the shotgun; and indeed many of our readers indicated that they would: 85% of you voted for England to ring the changes in our (not very scientific!) poll, with a majority favouring bringing in Lauren Winfield at the expense of Amy Jones.

But I think it is their mindset England need to change, not their team.

Dropping Jones (or Elwiss) after one duff knock isn’t the answer – the batting failures on Thursday were collective. Heather Knight alone fell to a moment of brilliance – Lanning’s direct hit from midwicket. Otherwise as Megan Schutt admitted afterwards, on a pitch with no daemons in it Australia found that all they needed to do was bowl it full and straight and wait for England to fail to defend their stumps, as all 9 wickets to fall in England’s post-drinks collapse went either bowled or LBW.

So England need to get back to basics with the bat – defending the stumps might sound like a glib piece of advice to offer to a professional cricketer; but if you don’t do it, you’ll find yourself back in the pavilion, and it can be difficult to score runs from there!

England’s bowlers also need to learn some lessons. All those short-pitched bouncers might scare the bejeezus out of the batsmen you find at club or county level, but at the pinnacle of the game (at the pace the women bowl) it doesn’t work, and the Australians were happy to either ignore it or give it the treatment it deserved.

Indeed the Aussies themselves had found this out on Tuesday – the short stuff was ineffective; the coaches had clearly identified this; and by Thursday it was history.

If England can do what Australia did – listen to the coaches and get the basics right – they can stay in this series. If they can’t, it’s going to be a short game on Sunday… and an even shorter Test in two weeks time.