T20 WORLD CUP: England v West Indies v South Africa – NRR Permutations

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Any England win, the group is decided on points and NRR becomes irrelevant:

Team Points NRR
England 8 ?
South Africa 6 ?
West Indies 4 ?

For completeness, if the match is rained off, the group is also decided on points:

Team Points NRR
England 7 ?
South Africa 6 ?
West Indies 5 ?

If West Indies win, things get more interesting – all 3 teams will be level on 6 points, and NRR comes into play. Let’s assume England bat first and score 130.

West Indies chase 130 in 20 overs:

Team Points NRR
South Africa 6 1.382
England 6 1.247
West Indies 6 1.244

West Indies chase 130 in 15 overs:

Team Points NRR
West Indies 6 1.836
South Africa 6 1.382
England 6 0.863

So if England score 130 and lose very narrowly, they can go through; but if they lose anything other than narrowly, they will fall behind South Africa on NRR and go out. This goes for scores up to 134 – if England score 135+ and West Indies win even narrowly, England will fall behind West Indies and South Africa on NRR.

What if they score 199?

West Indies chase 199 in 20 overs:

Team Points NRR
West Indies 6 1.428
South Africa 6 1.382
England 6 1.380

West Indies chase 199 in 15 overs:

Team Points NRR
West Indies 6 2.109
South Africa 6 1.382
England 6 0.938

So England still go out if they lose!

Finally… let’s try 201!

West Indies chase 201 in 20 overs:

Team Points NRR
West Indies 6 1.433
England 6 1.384
South Africa 6 1.382

West Indies chase 201 in 15 overs:

Team Points NRR
West Indies 6 2.117
South Africa 6 1.382
England 6 0.940

So… South Africa are through unless England very narrowly lose a very high-scoring game; and England will out out if they lose, unless they lose very narrowly and score either 134 or less or 201+.

(Or am I wrong?!?!)

One thought on “T20 WORLD CUP: England v West Indies v South Africa – NRR Permutations”

  1. I concur with your figures.

    Suffice to say South Africa should be feeling a lot more confident of qualification than either England or the West Indies.

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