With 4 games remaining to be played on Saturday, Surrey, Durham and Somerset are still all in with a mathematical chance of qualification.

They key fixtures are Surrey v Durham and Somerset v Warwickshire

Here are the possible scenarios.

Surrey Win (w. Bonus Point)

• Surrey Qualify on points

Surrey Win

• Surrey Qualify on points

Surrey v Durham – No Result/ Tie

• Surrey Qualify on points or NRR – Although Somerset could draw-level with Surrey on 31 points with a Bonus Point win, it is practically impossible for Somerset to overturn Surrey’s NRR advantage. (If Somerset scored 350 and then bowled Warwickshire out for 1, it still wouldn’t be enough!)

Durham Win (w. Bonus Point) + Somerset Lose (or N/R)

• Durham Qualify on points

Durham Win (w. Bonus Point) + Somerset Win (no BP)

• Durham Qualify on points

Durham Win (w. Bonus Point) + Somerset Win (w. BP)

• Durham Qualify on NRR… probably – A Bonus Point win for Durham will have increased their NRR sufficiently that it would be very difficult for Somerset to overtake them. (The narrowest possible Bonus Point win for Durham would leave Somerset needing to score 300 and bowl Warwickshire out for 100.)

Durham Win + Somerset Win (no BPs)

• Durham Qualify on NRR – If Somerset win without a Bonus Point, Durham will almost certainly qualify on NRR. It is possible for Durham to win and their NRR to drop slightly, but not by enough for it to be possible for Somerset to overturn with a non-Bonus Point win. (And if Somerset win with a Bonus Point, they qualify on points anyway – see below.)

Durham Win + Somerset Win (w. Bonus Point)

• Somerset Qualify on points

CAVEAT: The above is hopefully accurate, but as always:
DO NOT BET YOUR HOUSE ON SYD’S MATHS!!