On yesterday’s radio broadcast, the TMS team repeatedly stated that England had “all-but” qualified for the semi-finals.
We considered otherwise, but started to wonder if we were wrong until TMS’s Dan Norcross backed us up:
England play Pakistan in their final group match on Sunday afternoon; but before that West Indies play India in the morning. (UK times.)
Currently, England have 6 points, West Indies 4 and Pakistan 4, all with one match to play; so if West Indies and Pakistan win their final games, both will have 6 points along with England (who in this scenario have lost their final match to Pakistan) and so Net Run Rate will be brought to bear.
The first thing to remember is that if West Indies lose to India, it is all moot as far as England are concerned – they will have qualified regardless of what happens against Pakistan.
(Pakistan meanwhile would then need to beat England to qualify alongside them.)
But if West Indies do indeed beat India, then that is where it gets interesting from an England perspective.
Currently the NRRs stand as follows:
- West Indies: +0.87
- England: +0.75
- Pakistan: +0.33
West Indies having won their final match will have improved their NRR, so it is all down to England v Pakistan.
If England win, they are through; but it isn’t quite so simple for Pakistan. Because they trail England in NRR – they need to win by… how much?
Well, NRR can be a complicated beast to pin down, but here is one permutation:
If Pakistan bat first and make 120, England need to score 108 to qualify despite losing the match; but if they made just 107 their NRR would slip below Pakistan’s and they would go out.
Would we put money on this? No! Is it “plausible”? Absolutely! And anyone who therefore thinks England have already “all but” qualified needs to think again!