WWT20: Have England “All But” Qualified? (No… And Here’s Why!)

On yesterday’s radio broadcast, the TMS team repeatedly stated that England had “all-but” qualified for the semi-finals.

We considered otherwise, but started to wonder if we were wrong until TMS’s Dan Norcross backed us up:

England play Pakistan in their final group match on Sunday afternoon; but before that West Indies play India in the morning. (UK times.)

Currently, England have 6 points, West Indies 4 and Pakistan 4, all with one match to play; so if West Indies and Pakistan win their final games, both will have 6 points along with England (who in this scenario have lost their final match to Pakistan) and so Net Run Rate will be brought to bear.

The first thing to remember is that if  West Indies lose to India, it is all moot as far as England are concerned – they will have qualified regardless of what happens against Pakistan.

(Pakistan meanwhile would then need to beat England to qualify alongside them.)

But if West Indies do indeed beat India, then that is where it gets interesting from an England perspective.

Currently the NRRs stand as follows:

  1. West Indies: +0.87
  2. England: +0.75
  3. Pakistan: +0.33

West Indies having won their final match will have improved their NRR, so it is all down to England v Pakistan.

If England win, they are through; but it isn’t quite so simple for Pakistan. Because they trail England in NRR – they need to win by… how much?

Well, NRR can be a complicated beast to pin down, but here is one permutation:

If Pakistan bat first and make 120, England need to score 108 to qualify despite losing the match; but if they made just 107 their NRR would slip below Pakistan’s and they would go out.

Would we put money on this? No! Is it “plausible”? Absolutely! And anyone who therefore thinks England have already “all but” qualified needs to think again!

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5 thoughts on “WWT20: Have England “All But” Qualified? (No… And Here’s Why!)

  1. A few thoughts on the WI game.
    It was a prime example of how England have been better than other teams at sacrificing wickets for extra runs. It almost went too far this time admittedly, but when you look at 108-4 vs 109-9 it does not appear that the chasing side had better batting, just that they batted smarter. Not that there’s been too much “smart” about England’s batting collapses in the past 2 games. The middle order appears to be the main culprit – Taylor, Knight, Greenway and Wyatt seem to be fragile and locked into “batting first” mode i.e. maximising runs, and not being flexible enough to just adapt their game and get what’s needed when chasing. They are playing as if batting first on an ideal pitch. It has largely been the calmness of Sciver and numbers 10-11 that has saved England. We may see a couple of changes for the last group game. Greenway looks out of sorts at the moment and with Robinson/Edwards’ reluctance to bowl Wyatt (not sure why, she had good WBBL bowling figures), her place in the side must also be in doubt.

    It was a game that provided a microcosm of two of the latest tales of women’s cricket – the rapid rise of Tammy Beaumont and the changing role of Deandra Dottin. Beaumont has gone from being a reserve in the performance squad without much hope of a game, to being up with England’s top 3 T20 batters. Robinson sure knows how to spot ’em. She’s done exceptionally well and the opening partnership with Edwards has not disappointed. Dottin on the other hand has gone from being the name on everyone’s lips a few years ago to really struggling to get runs with the bat and becoming more of a trusted bowler in the West Indies side. However on this occasion that also didn’t work and her 2 overs were what helped get England over the line.

    So here are my comments on the qualification chances and the NRR issue.

    England’s NRR is not much better than Pakistan’s, meaning that there is only a smallish margin whereby England could lose to them and still have a better NRR. Your example of using 120 as Pakistan’s score to chase may be reasonable (Bangladesh got almost that against us after all), and based on the scores there so far the Chennai pitch does look marginally better to bat on than Dharamsala. But I still regard that as on the upper end of Pakistan’s capabilities, and it would not represent a particularly good bowling performance by England.

    The conditions will suit Pakistan’s attack which has done well so far in the competition. So it all depends on what scores we have, but the general rule of thumb is that England can afford to lose if they take it to the last over. The runs margin is approximately 12 if England are chasing (varies by score), so if they get within 12 runs of the target it will probably be enough. And if Pakistan are chasing, which you didn’t mention, they will certainly need to reach their target in under 19 overs. It may be about 18.4 overs, depending on the target. As this would be not that close a game, I don’t think it’s too likely to happen given England’s habit of taking things close of late. We can conclude that for Pakistan to qualify they need a superb performance, and England a very average one.

    And of course all this assumes that WI will beat India, another possibility which hardly seems more likely than not. WI were dejected after the loss to England, it was almost as if they thought they were already out – and let’s not forget a hungry India are still in with a chance, with their excellent NRR, if they beat WI and England beat Pakistan. So overall I’m not so sure it is entirely unreasonable to say England are all but through, it is of course possible they could fall at the final hurdle – but if they avoid another batting collapse and take the game close, there should not be much danger of the wheels falling off.

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  2. England are being nailed on as semi final losers by the media.

    To exceed expectations the batters need to show that they have more potential beyond this summer, when MR picks his own squad rather than tinkering with the squad he inherited.

    At the moment only Beaumont and Sciver are in the frame it would seem.

    I hope England can exceed expectations with a team performance to be proud of…

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  3. For anyone struggling with NRR and would like a ready-made calculator for Sunday, here goes:-

    Let A = runs scored by England
    Let B = balls faced by England
    Let C = runs scored by Pakistan
    Let D = balls faced by Pakistan

    England NNR For = (354+A) / ( (354 + B) / 6)
    England NNR Against= (315+C) / ( (360 + D) / 6)
    Subtract NNR Against from NNR For to get NNR.

    Pakistan NNR For = (290+C) / ( (315 + D) / 6)
    Pakistan NNR Against= (291+A) / ( (336 + B) / 6)
    Subtract NNR Against from NNR For to get NNR.

    The above works for Duckworth-Lewis but the only bummer with D/L is getting the correct values for A, B, C and D.

    You can try it out for the example given by Syd above. C = 120, D = 120, A = 108, B = 120 gives England NNR of 0.410601 and Pakistan NRR of 0.405172 but just one difference with C = 120, D = 120, A = 107, B = 120 gives England NNR of 0.397943 and Pakistan NRR of 0.418330

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  4. Pingback: WWT20: Ground Control To England – Don’t Underestimate Pakistan | CRICKETher

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