CRICKETher’s computer analysis confirms that there is still everything to play for when the 50-over RHF Trophy resumes in September.
Currently, Vipers sit top on 14 points, with Diamonds and Sparks hot on their heels on 13 points each.
But with 3 rounds of fixtures remaining, all 8 teams can still qualify for the “eliminator” (AKA “semi-final”) by finishing 2nd or 3rd, and everyone except Sunrisers can still theoretically qualify directly for the final by finishing 1st.
CRICKETher has analyzed 250 million possible scenarios, using our predictive modeling software, taking into account all possible outcomes of the 12 remaining matches, with the results shown below.
The ‘Qualification %’ is an indication of the likelihood of achieving at least 3rd place and making the eliminator, with an asterisk indicating that qualification is dependent on other results.
Obviously, qualification remains an outside bet for Storm and Sunrisers. Sunrisers could actually finish 2nd, though that would need a fairly extraordinary series of results, including other fixtures being rained-off; but given that it will be September… and it’s England… that’s certainly not out of the question! Like Storm and Sunrisers, Thunder are dependent on other results, but for the everyone else the maths in their hands – if they win all their remaining matches, with bonus points, they are guaranteed qualification.
| Team | Points | Best Points | Best Position | Qualification % |
| Vipers | 14 | 29 | 1 | 82 |
| Diamonds | 13 | 28 | 1 | 74 |
| Sparks | 13 | 28 | 1 | 73 |
| Lightning | 9 | 24 | 1 | 33 |
| Stars | 9 | 24 | 1 | 33 |
| Thunder | 8 | 23 | 1 | 25* |
| Storm | 4 | 19 | 1 | 4* |
| Sunrisers | 0 | 15 | 2 | 1* |
CRICKETher 
Firstly, well done on the swanky software. Excellent addition to the journalist’s tool set.
“Obviously, qualification remains an outside bet for Storm and Sunrisers – the latter in particular would need a fairly extraordinary series of results, including other fixtures being rained-off”.
For any Sunraisers fans out there, you can finish 3rd without relying on wash outs. You have to rely on washouts to finish 2nd (I think – I’m still reading through the 244,140,625 possible results and my spreadsheet has just exploded!)
Syd, can you give different weight to different outcomes in your software ? If so, did you or have you assumed each outcome is equally likely ?
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The original version of the software recorded ALL the outcomes in a database, but it was going to take DAYS to run for this size of dataset, so I threw that out and started again. The new version is fast (half an hour) but only records the “best” case currently – so I need to find a medium between those two! Weighting the outcomes definitely seems like a good enhancement!
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Just did a quick re-write – Sunrisers need a draw/ washout to come 2nd, but you are of course quite right that they can come 3rd without.
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