It is a recurrent trope in cricket commentary that T20 is a “levelling format”. In T20s, we say, upsets are more common because anyone can beat anyone on the day; whereas ODIs are a more predictable format where the better team tends to pull through. But is this true?

In order to answer this question, let’s look at all ODIs and international T20s played since the pandemic (2020-23) between the top 10 sides, and use the current ICC rankings*. We’ll define an “upset” as a team beating a side ranked 3 or more places above them.

In men’s T20 internationals 16% of the 250-odd matches played during our period resulted in an upset. That sounds quite “levelly”; but how does that compare to men’s ODIs? The men play a lot less ODI cricket, but there were still 170 games between the top 10 ranked sides during the past 4 years, of which 21% produced an upset.

So much for the levelling effect – in the men’s game, an ODI is 5% more likely to produce an upset than a T20.

What about the women? In T20 cricket, based on 180-or-so matches between the ‘Championship’ sides since 2020, just 8% resulted in an upset. That compares to 16% in men’s T20s, which is interesting of itself – international women’s T20 cricket is a lot more predictable than the men’s game.

But how does this compare to women’s ODIs? In the 130 ODIs played in the past 4 years, the number ending in an upset is… 8% – exactly the same as for T20s! So a Women’s T20 international is no more likely to produce an upset than an ODI. The levelling effect which we talk so much about, once again just isn’t there in the data.

This leads us to two conclusions:

1. The “levelling effect” of T20 is a myth, in both men’s and women’s international cricket, and we all need to get over our confirmation bias and stop repeating it!
2. Women’s cricket is very predictable, compared to the men’s game, and perhaps we should do something about that?

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* This isn’t ideal – because the rankings are based on the results, there is something of the cart pushing the horse, but it keeps things simple, and it actually doesn’t matter much anyway because we are looking at the results comparatively.

By Martin Saxon

After another closely fought season, Didsbury emerged as champions of the Cheshire Women’s Cricket League for the first time since 2019. The South Manchester club achieved the feat despite having only one of the 15 highest run scorers in division one, which was their captain Roshini Prince-Navaratnam, who was also the league’s leading all-rounder this year. Instead, much of their success was due in no small part to their bowling attack – besides Prince-Navaratnam, Hannah Jones, Hannah Marshall and Zara Matthews all had fine seasons.

2022 champions Leigh had to make do with second place, despite more runs from Rachael Walsh and the bowling efforts of Kasey Bentham and Sophie Heaton. They beat Didsbury by bowling them out cheaply in the first encounter between the teams, but Didsbury reversed this in a thrilling last-ball finish in the second match. Had that match gone the other way, or finished as a tie, Leigh would now be celebrating retaining the title.

Nantwich and Stockport Georgians finished third and fourth respectively in the first division, and for both clubs, this represented their highest ever finishes. Georgians had the highest run scorer in their Australian wicketkeeper Heidi Cheadle.

Upton finished in eighth and last place in the top-flight, finding the going difficult after their promotion from division two. They recorded just one league win and are set to return to the second division next year, despite having the league’s leading wicket taker, Lily Scudder.

After missing out on promotion last year by a single point, Lindow made no mistake this year by winning division two with a 100 per cent record. As well as celebrating their arrival in the top-flight, Lindow broke new ground for the league this year by becoming the first Cheshire League club to reach the semi-finals of the Women’s National T20 Knockout.

The only other divisional winners to end with a perfect record were Buxton in Division 3 East, Runcorn in Division 5 Mid Cheshire and Aston in Division 5 South.

One of the league’s most noticeable features is just how unpredictable and competitive it remains. Only one club has retained the first division title since 2012, while no club has accomplished the treble since 2013. That said, Didsbury came extremely close this year, winning the T20 Divisional Competition to add to their League Championship success, but losing by one run to Nantwich in the Senior Knockout final.

TROPHY WINNERS

This week:

• ECB’s response to ICEC – talking the right talk but will they walk the walk?
• Will we get an England Test at Lord’s?
• Domestic salaries: why we need to level up
• South Africa v New Zealand & why NZC’s lack of a pathway is coming home to roost