NEW ZEALAND V ENGLAND: 3rd ODI – England Wither on Devine

An 8th ODI hundred for Sophie Devine, brought up with a 6 off the final ball of the game, gave New Zealand victory in the final T20 at Hamilton.

Although New Zealand had already lost the series 2-1, they will take consolation from two crucial ICC Championship points, which could well be the difference between direct entry to the World Cup in India and having to schlep off to a qualifying tournament. Having drawn the short-straw of missing out on playing thus-far-winless Ireland (every team “skips” one of the 9 possible opponents) New Zealand are currently evens, having won 8 games and lost 8, with 2 no-results. However, their last two series are against Australia and India, so there is a good chance that they will finish on 18. I’ve not run the Alligator analysis software on the Championship table – with so many games remaining, it would take several days to run – but my guess is that 18 points will… just… be enough.

New Zealand’s win was assisted by a vintage England collapse, after England had chosen to bat first, presumably with the intention of proving something. And to be fair, they did prove something – just not the thing that Heather Knight would have had in mind when she won the toss.

England didn’t get the ideal start, but these things happen, and Heather Knight and Nat Sciver-Brunt had rebuilt to 82-2 by the end of the 17th over. Just 6 overs later, they were 95-6, having lost 4 wickets for 13 runs. Sciver-Brunt was first to go, holing out trying to accelerate her strike rate; but, again, these things happen – you will lose wickets, but the key is to not let 1 turn into 2 turn into 4. And that is exactly what England did.

Dunkley failed to move her feet and ended up playing the ball she hoped she was going to get, not the one she actually got, which was a pretty regulation delivery on off stump; Wyatt tried to sweep a full toss without accounting for the fact that Amelia Kerr might not get much turn if she doesn’t pitch it, but she will still get plenty of dip; and finally Knight was run out by a couple of inches after momentarily ruminating on a quick single.

Knight wasn’t happy with Amy Jones, but England have drilled themselves to grab these sharp singles, to the point where it is an instinct thing, and the run was there if Knight hadn’t taken that fraction of a second to procrastinate.

It was left to Jones and Charlie Dean once again to salvage something from the sinking ship, and for the second time in the series they did that; although it came to a somewhat disappointing end when Jones was guided straight into a trap, with a big neon sign above it saying “Trap”, by Suzie Bates and Eden Carson both wearing t-shirts with “Welcome To Our Trap!” written on them.

Dean did sterling work once again at No. 8, holding up her end while Amy Jones went at a run-a-ball at the other, to take England to within walking distance of respectability. It is taking nothing away from Dean in this series however, to point out that anyone suggesting that England should push her further up the order after this, needs to put their glasses on and read the scorecard. Scores of 38 off 64 balls (today) and 42 off 70 (in the first ODI) are what England needed from her in that role, but they aren’t strike rates that are going to cut it at the top levels of international cricket these days, and as soon as Dean tried to accelerate today she signed her own death warrant. Dean might yet become a top 6 ODI batter – at the same age (23) Tammy Beaumont was averaging 18, with a highest score of 44, and still 3 years away from her breakthrough summer of 2016 – so Dean has time… but she is not there yet.

Thanks to Jones and Dean, England got close to the 200 that might have been enough had Sophie Devine not put on the Ritz with a perfectly timed century. Devine is closing in on 35 years young, but still averaging 55 in ODIs in the past 12 months; and while she’s smashing 6s on decent boundaries like she did today, who knows how long she can go on?

Devine was one of the very first “professionals” – prior to the first KSL in 2016, at a glamorous (really!) launch party in Manchester (really-really!), Raf and I went around all the players in the room asking them what their favorite Nandos was. (It was for a piece… we aren’t that socially awkward… well… Raf isn’t, anyway!) Most said chicken, a couple said salad. Sophie Devine said: “I’m a professional athlete – I don’t eat that s***!” And yet in a strange sort of a way, Devine has also ended up becoming one of the very last “amateurs” – those who keep playing above-all because it’s fun. And for that, you can’t not love her. Even if you’re England today.

NEW ZEALAND v ENGLAND: 1st ODI – Jailbreak!

England got out of jail free, passed ‘Go’, and collected 2 ICC Championship points, in the 1st ODI against New Zealand in Wellington.

The win leapfrogs England over New Zealand and Pakistan, from 5th place into 3rd in the ICC Championship, though the table does have to be read with some caution right now, with New Zealand having played 3 more games than England, and Pakistan 6 more.

Chasing a sub-par 207, England had collapsed to 79-6 at the end of the 17th over when Wyatt, who had already hinted that she couldn’t pick Amelia Kerr’s wrong’un, confirmed the fact as Kerr ghosted one through her defences. To be fair to Wyatt, she’s not the first and she won’t be the last. In fact, I remember one Amy Jones once admitting in a press huddle after a game that she couldn’t pick Kerr, before rather sheepishly adding “Perhaps I shouldn’t have said that?”

And who was at the other end from Wyatt today? The last recognised “proper” batter in England’s lineup? Ah… hello Ms Jones – fancy seeing you here!

England had carded Sophie Ecclestone to come in next, but they tweaked the batting order slightly and Charlie Dean walked out to the middle. With 129 runs still required, it felt like an impossible ask, but 25 overs later Dean hit the winning runs, with Jones 92* at the other end, and England celebrated the unlikeliest of victories.

Sending in Dean was a masterstroke, because she is so unflappable – a trait she has inherited from her father, who had a long minor-counties batting career and someone once described to me as “The best batter never to have played professional cricket”. The great Australian bowler Merv Hughes allegedly once summed-up Dean Sr. even more succinctly, after a tour match against a minor counties XI, exclaiming simply: “Who is this c***?” And whilst I’m sure that kind of language would never pass the lips of any of today’s White Ferns, they could be forgiven similar sentiments after Dean finished 42* off 70 balls.

Dean really was the key, despite scoring half the runs Jones did, because her indefatigability seemed to rub off on Jones, who is prone to the odd rush of blood to the head, especially in high-pressure situations, of which today was among the highest. Between the two of them, they suddenly made batting look easy, and towards the end it felt like they could have chased at least another 30 with ease, as they passed the winning post with a country mile to spare.

New Zealand’s bowlers will probably be held culpable for letting the win slip through their hands, but the truth for me is more that the White Ferns’ bowlers almost pulled off a heist after the batting department had really let them down.

The Milwaukee tells the story – New Zealand hit just 30 runs in the powerplay, putting them behind the game from the off. And it could have been even worse – the Kiwis were extraordinarily lucky not to lose any wickets early on, as Kate Cross made Bernadine Bezuidenhout in particular look totally clueless. Alex Hartley kept mentioning on comms that Cross hadn’t played any white-ball cricket for six months, having sat on the bench at WPL – almost like Hartley was getting the excuses in early for her old mate; but she didn’t need to: Cross delivered the full pizza, conceding just 10 runs from 5 overs in the powerplay, with 24 dots from 30 balls in that phase.

Bezuidenhout and Suzie Bates were able to up the run rate a bit during the 10 overs that followed the powerplay, and having (somehow!) kept wickets in hand, more by luck than anything else, New Zealand were in a position to start throwing the bat a little bit in the second half of their innings. Unfortunately for them however, they decided to throw the bat a little too much and wickets tumbled, leaving them all out for 207.

A typical score in women’s ODIs between the championship sides since the start of 2021 is 247, so this felt somewhat light.

It was a good day for England’s bowlers no doubt, but the TV commentators, distracted by Cross’s early numbers (which were remarkable) did make a tad too much of The Dot Thing. England’s bowling dot percentage in this game was 58%. Their overall percentage in ODIs since the start of 2021? 58%!

England’s reply got off to the worst possible start as Tammy Beaumont was bowled off an accidental full toss from Jess Kerr. It was a legal delivery as the laws stand, there’s no doubt about that, but it does feel like maybe it shouldn’t be – at least, not a delivery you can get out from. Maybe it should be a dead ball under those circumstances, though I admit I haven’t really thought that one through. (Feel free to have your say below, if you have an opinion – I’d be interested to hear your views.)

Heather Knight never really got the motor started, but Maia Bouchier was going along nicely and Nat Sciver-Brunt had just hit consecutive 4s off Jess Kerr, to take England to 54-2 at the end of the 11th over, when it started to go south for England. With the T20 side having procured a titanic collapse in the 3rd T20, their ODI sisters gave it the full “Hold My Beer” losing 4-25. Defeat looked certain; but we’ve seen miracles at Easter before – there was a famous one about 2,000 years ago – and we can now add another to that list.

STATS: How Often Does The Team Winning The Powerplay Win The Match?

During the recent England v New Zealand T20 series, Alex Hartley observed on comms that for the first 4 games in the series, the team that had “won” the powerplay went on to lose the match. This was definitely an interesting titbit. In the entire history of T20s between the sides that now make up the ICC Championship, the team that won the powerplay went on to win the match 72% of the time.

One of the other commentators then went on to assert two further things.

  1. That there had been a recent downward trend in that number.
  2. That this was due to improvements in middle-order batting.

Let’s look at the numbers! (For the mathsy among you, this is using a polynomial trend.)

It is true that there has been a distinct downward tick recently – for several years, from 2014 to 2022, the number hovered at around 70%, but has now crashed down to below 50%, so it does look like something is going on.

But… is it?

Although we are talking about hundreds of matches overall, hundreds aren’t actually very big numbers in stats terms, especially when you are looking at trends like this. So although the downtick shown here looks fascinating, it might not actually be very significant.

In order to illustrate this, let’s look at what happens if I change the results of just 3 recent matches.

If the outcome of as few as 3 games had been different, that startling downtick completely disappears, and we are back at the long-term trend of around 70%!

So to conclude, although there is a recent downward trend in the relationship between winning the powerplay and winning the match, it is probably just “noise”. The number fluctuates up and down – this is the “down”, but it will go up again, and there is no exciting new trend. (Sorry commentators!)

Moving on to the commentator’s second point, and admittedly somewhat more subjectively, even if it is not noise, the idea that it is due to improvements in middle order batting is palpably not upheld by what happened in the England v New Zealand series.

In the games New Zealand lost, they won the powerplays because they went of at 90mph, like that kid on parkrun who always sprints to the front at the start, but their middle order was completely unable to maintain that pace, so they fell off a cliff in the middle overs and went on to lose the game. Furthermore, in England’s case the game they lost was also due to a middle order collapse.

There definitely have been trends in batting over recent years, most obviously in the absolute number of runs scored; but this doesn’t appear to be one of them: the team winning the powerplay usually goes on to win the match 70% of the time, and the likelihood is that it will stay that way.

NEW ZEALAND v ENGLAND: 5th T20 – Filer That One Under “Job Done”

A businesslike performance from England allowed them to win the final T20 in Wellington by 5 wickets, with 7 balls to spare, to close out the series 4-1.

With Lauren Bell sitting this one out, England’s one change was to bring back Lauren Filer for her second outing of the series. It was a “like for like” replacement, in the sense that they are both “fast bowlers” but Filer’s plans today were not plans you’d have given Bell.

Filer’s directives today were straight out of men’s county cricket, where her coach and mentor Jon Lewis plied his trade for nearly 20 years – rough up the Kiwis by bowling short and targeting the body. You don’t see these kinds of tactic much in the women’s game, I think partly because the women’s game is just less aggressive, and partly because you need to be bowling pretty rapidly for it to work. Indeed, I have an inkling that if you asked England directly whether this was the tactic they’d probably deny it, but the evidence is clear to see – almost every delivery was missing the stumps but hitting the batter, forcing them to fend-off in a way that they aren’t comfortable or accustomed to doing.

And it worked – there might not have been any reward in the wickets column on this occasion, but Filer bowled 12 dots and finished with England’s best Economy Rate on the day, going at just 5.5 per over. The prospect of Filer bowling with these plans in next year’s Women’s Ashes Test at the MCG, with close fielders to pile the pressure on the batters, is… intriguing, shall we say?

With Filer and Nat Sciver-Brunt bowling most of the powerplay, New Zealand struggled. NSB produced a beauty to get Bernadine Bezuidenhout in her first over; and then had Amelia Kerr caught in the deep in her second. In fact, Kerr’s wicket might say “c Capsey b Sciver-Brunt” in the scorebook, but it should really read “c Capsey b Filer” because it was undoubtedly the 5 dots bowled by Filer to Kerr in the previous over that induced an uncharacteristically adventurous shot from Kerr, who is not a power hitter and is normally smart enough to know that – she had one of the lowest boundary percentage of any of the top 20 batters in WPL.

New Zealand finished the powerplay 29-3 – the lowest powerplay score of the series. Alex Hartley observed on comms that the team that has “won” the powerplay has gone on to lose the match in every prior game in this series; but I think that is more an artefact of the way New Zealand’s top-heavy batting tends to mean they hare-off at 90mph before falling away later. So credit to them, because that’s not what happened today.

A 28-ball 51 from Izzy Gaze was the key innings, allowing New Zealand to plunder 41 runs at the death. It was all a bit madcap, but it took them to a score of 136, which is bang-on average for a T20 international between the championship sides these days – so definitely a score where you’re in the game.

With Maia Bouchier barely troubling the scorers for once, England too got off to a slow start. Neither Alice Capsey nor Danni Wyatt really got going, and were eventually dismissed for similar returns trying to accelerate their scoring: Wyatt stumped coming down the wicket and Capsey… you’re not going to believe this… caught in the outfield trying to smash it ten ways to Timbuktu.

But the key thing from both Capsey and Wyatt was that, despite not having their best days at the office, they still kept England chugging along – the required rate never went above 8, and that meant Nat Sciver-Brunt and Heather Knight had a platform to gradually chip away at the total through the middle overs.

This took England to within touching distance, allowing Sophia Dunkley and Amy Jones to do the drying-up, with the help of a couple of no-balls just when New Zealand really didn’t need them, taking the pressure off two players who haven’t had great series and who might just have cracked if the Kiwis had been able to really turn the screw at the death.

So here endeth the T20 series, with a final 4-1 scoreline in England’s favour that will have surprised no one. Maia Bouchier was named Player of the Series – her 223 runs almost twice the total amassed by New Zealand’s top run-scorer, Amelia Kerr, who led their way with 114, despite missing the first match on her way back from WPL.

With those two big performances in the 3rd and 4th T20s, Bouch has seized that spot at the top of the order and hopefully will now get the kind of run at that role that Dunkley had and ultimately could not convert. She does seem to have made genuine progress in the past year or so, and I wonder if she’ll one day look at being banned from bowling as a blessing in disguise, allowing her to focus on one thing and move it on to a new level? If so, this will have been where the step up started.

NEW ZEALAND V ENGLAND: 3rd T20 – Maia Way Or The Highway

It was “Maia way or the highway” for England in Nelson… and they chose the highway, undoing all the good work of what should have been a match-winning 71 off 47 balls from Maia Bouchier. England collapsed from 126-2 at the end of the 15th over, with just a run-a-ball 30 required, to 152-8, falling 4 short of victory.

Bouchier was in early, after Sophia Dunkley was run out for a duck in the second over. (It was a sharp single, but the kind England take all the time and Dunkley was beaten by an inch – if she’d only have dived, she’d have made it.) Bouchier was quickly up and at the New Zealand bowling, hitting her first and third balls for 4s off Hannah Rowe; with Rowe having come in to the New Zealand XI for Jess Kerr, who didn’t seem to have done a lot wrong, but we assume was dropped to slightly strengthen the batting?

If you were penning a match report just from the scorecards, you’d probably write now that “Bouchier built on the 43* she’d made in the 1st T20” but that would be a total mischaracterisation. Having looked slightly timid and afraid in the earlier match, Bouchier’s mindset appeared completely different today, and she played the situation to perfection. She was very positive, without being reckless, as her and Tammy Beaumont motored towards the highest powerplay score of the series so far, taking them to 60-1 off the first 6 overs.

The final tally for Bouhier and Beaumont was a partnership of 92 off 61 balls, putting England in control – 25 runs ahead on where New Zealand had been at the end of the 12th over in which Beamont was dismissed.

Having starred in the first two matches, Heather Knight was happy to sit back and watch from the other end as Bouchier pushed on. Knight ran single after single to get Bouchier back on strike, and the reward was another 24 runs from 15 balls, which should have put the match beyond doubt.

TV commentators aren’t supposed to admit the match is done until the very last ball is bowled. (“So it’s 19 required from the final ball, but if they can just hit 3 consecutive no-balls for six, they could still take this to a super over…”) But Alex Hartley was right when she basically said we could start the car. England, however, had other ideas, instigating one of the most calamitous collapses I’ve ever seen from a supposedly “top” international side, losing 5 wickets for 21 runs in the death phase as the ship went down.

It’s unfair to pick on one player… but I’m going to do it anyway.

[Bess Heath… if you are reading this… please look away now – it definitely wasn’t really your fault.]

Bess Heath… what were you thinking? You were the last recognised batter, aside from accidental debutante Hollie Armitage. You needed 9 off 9 balls. You had time – not much of it, but enough. Now was not the time to roll out the glory mow. And yet… roll it out you did, with entirely predictable consequences.

England’s up and coming generation, of which Bess Heath is part, are an exciting prospect; but they are like a radio with the volume stuck on 11 – every ball is theirs to slog-sweep!

Heath’s recklessness left poor Hollie Armo holding a live grenade on a day which must have seen her run a whole marathon of emotions. She will have been bitterly disappointed not to be named in the starting XI – she will have known that this was almost certainly her final chance to be an international cricketer, and to have come so close yet so far, must have been dismaying. Then the head-injury to Sarah Glenn thrust her in, initially as a substitute fielder and then as a concussion sub, meaning she gets a full England cap that no one can ever take away from her. Then to be thrown in at the deep end in the midst of a storm, and have to walk off having been bowled by Suzie Bates’ first ball of the day. It was a day she’ll want to remember for ever… and a day she’ll forever want to forget.

A day to forget for England was of course a day to remember for New Zealand – a famous victory from the jaws of defeat. And what they have shown today is that when things go their way, they have the resources to beat the top sides, even if they are (if we are brutally honest) no longer one of them. Sophie Devine’s 60 runs to gift her side that huge death phase, giving them (just) enough to bowl at; the support from Amelia Kerr; Suzie Bates stepping up in that final over. You only need to win two big games to win a T20 World Cup. This match was notice – they could yet do that later this year.